• Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch
  Figures and Forecasts by Eric Gaus

Figures and Forecasts

View my profile on LinkedIn

RSS Feed

Three Signs of Slow Future Growth

7/31/2017

0 Comments

 
The recent release of second quarter GDP growth came in below WSJ expectations as well as a downward revision of first quarter growth (from 1.4 to 1.2). This new data follows weak inflation numbers from last week.

1. For the past two years expectations exhibit an upward bias. Which, if that bias holds true, means low future expected growth would indicate even lower actual growth. Projected growth in 2018 is 2.38 percent, and 1.94 percent in 2019. These are significantly below the administrations overly optimistic 3 percent promise.
Picture
2. Expected federal funds rates have been falling since the beginning of the year. Not by a lot, but it has been consistent, suggesting that new data will give the Fed pause in increasing their target rates.
Picture
3. Expected housing starts continue to fall. At the beginning of 2016 expected housing starts were quite robust, however, subsequent data have curtailed consensus optimism. If this expectation falls below 1200, that could be a signal the beginnings of a slow down in the housing market.
Picture
While there some signs of growth remain, these three sets of expectations should worry investors and the current administration. All indicate at the very least, that the economy will not grow particularly quickly in the coming year. In the worst case scenario we may see the beginnings of a recession by the end of 2018.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017

    Categories

    All
    Airlines
    College
    Durable Goods
    Econometrics
    Elections
    Equities
    Euro
    Expectations
    Federal Funds Rate
    Galton
    Gdp Growth
    Gender
    Google Trends
    Housing
    Immagration
    Income
    Inflation
    Labor Market
    My Forecasts
    Nyse
    Options
    Payrolls
    Recession
    Taxes
    Unemployment
    Venture-capital
    Wages
    Wine
    WSJ Survey
    Yield Curves

    RSS Feed

LATEST UPDATE​: 9.7..2017

© COPYRIGHT 2017. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch