• Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch
  Figures and Forecasts by Eric Gaus

Figures and Forecasts

View my profile on LinkedIn

RSS Feed

October 2017 WSJ Forecasts

10/13/2017

0 Comments

 
The latest WSJ economic forecasts are out, and they contained only a few negatives compared to the September edition. Major indicators of economic weakness were higher oil prices and lower housing starts, and Q3 GDP growth. The average third quarter GDP growth forecast dropped by about 0.25 percentage points, but this was offset by an increase in fourth quarter growth. The declines for housing starts were not very large. However, oil price forecasts all shot up by a dollar or more.

On the bright side, the spread between the federal funds rate and ten-year bonds tightened indicating less perceived economic risk over through 2019. Annual GDP growth increased across the board, though not by much. The consensus is for more than 2 percent growth through 2019. We also continue to see declines in the predicted unemployment rate, and the decline was stronger for the longer horizon indicating that forecasters are skeptical about a quick reversal in the job market tightens. 

Last month I discussed the likelihood of recession based on unemployment forecasts. The recession probability dropped a little (almost a quarter of a percent), and payrolls increased. The unemployment trough still is timed for the end of 2018, but the 2019 forecasts dropped more than the 2018 forecasts, which suggests that the window for the pivot point is expanding. That is, there is more uncertainty about when the labor market and the economy will start to contract.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017

    Categories

    All
    Airlines
    College
    Durable Goods
    Econometrics
    Elections
    Equities
    Euro
    Expectations
    Federal Funds Rate
    Galton
    Gdp Growth
    Gender
    Google Trends
    Housing
    Immagration
    Income
    Inflation
    Labor Market
    My Forecasts
    Nyse
    Options
    Payrolls
    Recession
    Taxes
    Unemployment
    Venture-capital
    Wages
    Wine
    WSJ Survey
    Yield Curves

    RSS Feed

LATEST UPDATE​: 9.7..2017

© COPYRIGHT 2017. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch