• Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch
  Figures and Forecasts by Eric Gaus

Figures and Forecasts

View my profile on LinkedIn

RSS Feed

Headline Forecasts May 2018

5/24/2018

0 Comments

 
Using the most recent data including updated aggregate expectations, I have a new set of headline forecasts. First quarter data on international trade and finance have yet to be released, so these forecasts still rely on estimates of the Q1. Second quarter real GDP has dropped significantly (almost half a percent) from last month, whereas first-quarter forecasts increased to fall in line with the advance estimate. The end of 2018 still looks to be quite strong, before mellowing to long-run average growth in 2020.
Picture
Despite an apparent level shift (the newest unemployment data suggests my Q1 forecast is too high by 0.2 percentage points), my unemployment forecasts see further declines into 2019 before steadily climbing in 2020. That acceleration in unemployment is consistent with a significant recession beginning in the third or fourth quarter of 2020.
Picture
My model's forecasts of inflation suggest that the Fed's projected rate increases will keep inflation in check through 2019. There is a lot less variability in this set of projections compared to last month. The decline in inflation through 2018 seems robust, as does its eventual rise in 2020. 
Picture
To round off this months forecast, I include the aggregate estimates of Inflation, GDP, and the federal funds rate. Inflation and GDP expectations remain high despite a (well-founded) belief of a rising federal funds rate.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017

    Categories

    All
    Airlines
    College
    Durable Goods
    Econometrics
    Elections
    Equities
    Euro
    Expectations
    Federal Funds Rate
    Galton
    Gdp Growth
    Gender
    Google Trends
    Housing
    Immagration
    Income
    Inflation
    Labor Market
    My Forecasts
    Nyse
    Options
    Payrolls
    Recession
    Taxes
    Unemployment
    Venture-capital
    Wages
    Wine
    WSJ Survey
    Yield Curves

    RSS Feed

LATEST UPDATE​: 9.7..2017

© COPYRIGHT 2017. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • Home
  • About Me
  • Teaching
  • Research
  • Blog
  • Get in Touch